Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Super Tuesday
OK, so it's 7:14pm and I just got home. I guess Huckabee has already taken 18 delegates from West Virginia, and Obama got 3 from Samoa. A bunch of polls close at 8pm. I'm watching Fox. At this point, I guess the best I can hope for is a no decision. That is, no clear GOP candidate so Mitt Romney still has a chance in later races. I'll post updates as the results flow in.
I had a thought earlier today: if Obama wins the Democrat nomination, you should get used to saying "President Obama". I really don't think either GOP candidate could keep him from a date with history (infamy?).
7:24pm I'm getting up to speed on the WV GOP shenanigans. And that's exactly what they were, shenanigans. It's obviously a double-team job, McCain and Huck vs. Mitt. That's politics, I guess, but it doesn't do much for Huck's "nice guy" image. It's now official: a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain. Look for a McCain/Huckabee ticket. Look for a 3rd party to form.
7:28pm Huckabee has broken out on top in the GA race. But he's only 1% over Romney with 1% reporting. Let's see if the McCain/Huckabee manipulation continues here.
7:30pm With 1% reporting, Fox has declared GA for Obama. It's a smackdown 64%/34%. It'll get closer, but Obama opens with the momentum.
7:40pm Why is Huck breaking out with 33% in GA, while McCain is stuck at 1%? Is there more collusion going on here? This doesn't make much sense. Here are the RCP polls for GA. McCain has about 32%. These numbers are going to change.
7:49pm Whoa, with less than 1% in, Fox calls AL for Huck? What the? Is he going to take all of the Southern states? If he can deliver those, he will be the VP.
7:50pm I'm not sure what's wrong with the Fox ticker, but the percentages don't line up with the vote counts. Obama gets AL with 1 vote on the board.
8:00pm Out of 5 states that Fox has called: McCain wins 3 (IL, CT, NJ), Huck wins 1 (AL), McCain wins MA. I don't think any of those are a surprise. But Huck is leading in GA too. Aargh.
8:03pm Hillary takes TN for the Dems. That surprises me. I'm not sure why, but it does.
8:10pm McCain and Huckabee are splitting GA and TN. Romney is being frozen out. I think Romney is going down the tubes, even if he surprises anyone in CA or MO.
8:13pm The Barone take on GA: McCain wins near military bases, Huckabee wins rural areas, Romney is winning in the burbs. These numbers could change.
8:15pm Karl Rove on Fox News. McCain's winner take all strategy is working. Romney gets an "incomplete". Huckabee gets kudos for his Bible Belt strategy.
8:23pm Fox reviews some early reporting, and Romney appears in 3rd place again and again. This doesn't look good. It might have been his strategy, but it sure doesn't build confidence.
8:30pm AK goes for Hillary and Huck. No surprise.
8:33pm Romney is gaining in GA. He's only behind by 6K votes. It'll be worth watching.
8:35pm DE for McCain. Boy, all these calls for McCain are discouraging.
8:38pm Karl Rove says Huckabee won't solve McCain's image problems with conservatives. He's right. But he doesn't pick anyone that would help. Chris Wallace mentions someone from SC. But I didn't catch the name.
8:52pm Fox calls MA for Hillary. So it starts to look like she will win the big states she expected. This is a big stick in the eye for Teddy.
8:54pm Laura Ingraham says she will back the GOP candidate, no matter who. But, she says she is worried about Conservatism. Amen to that. McCain will have to make a hell of a speech at CPAC to win over conservatives.
9:00pm Bunch of polls close, and Fox calls NY for Hillary. Arizona is too close for the GOP. That's a good sign for Romney.
9:04pm Hi, I'm in.....Delaware. And I went for Barack Obama.
9:10pm NJ goes for Hillary. Once again, her big state strategy is continuing. This will lessen the Obama surge today.
9:15pm Mary Katherine Ham is in the background on Fox (heavy sigh). If I was younger (and more talented) I might have a shot.
9:18pm NY for McCain. Not a shocker. But unfortunate.
9:25pm Watching the Montana results is funny. With 26% of precincts reporting, there are about 100 votes in. Now that's turnout!
9:28pm AL for Obama. He's doing well in the Southern states.
Pause for snack break
10:04pm So I come back and OK has gone for McCain. TN is lost to Romney (Huck's in the lead). And Huck is in the lead in GA. Romney needs an upset somewhere (AZ?).
10:08pm Huck is on Fox and....well he sounds so self-righteous that I can't listen. He has a reason to be happy, but damn he reminds me of Billy Jeff.
10:10pm I think after tonight, we may be able to clearly identify the factions in the Republican party: 1. The Northeastern Liberals. 2. Bible Belt Evangelicals, and 3. Western Conservatives.
10:27pm With 2% reporting, Romney takes Utah. There's a shocker.
10:29pm Huckabee still leades in GA. I think he'll take that one too with 78% reporting.
10:30pm Romney takes ND. One for the Western Conservatives. ND for Obama too.
10:33pm AZ breaks big for McCain. 51% with about 20% reporting. What's up with the exit polls that showed a 4% difference with Romney? Don't believe exit polls. Fox calls it for McCain. That really leaves CA, MO, and CO for Romney to make a splash.
10:35pm Good news for Mitt in MN. With 18% in, he leads by about 5%. I hope it keeps going that way. He needs to add a few more states to the tally.
10:37pm TN has gone for Huckabee. Oh, Lord. Will it ever end? I may develop a nervous twitch at this rate.
10:39pm Good speech by Mitt Romney. I like the fire and the emotion. He says he's going to carry on. I hope he finds a way to counter the McHucksters.
10:41pm GA for Huckabee. Argh. Is he the Perot of the primary? It looks like he's going to take MO too. Romney needs a big showing in CA and needs to steal a state. Any state. CO?
10:50pm Not going to listen to Hillary. Too. Painful. Grates. Ears. Seriously, how can anyone think of sending this family back to White House?
10:56pm With 28% in, Romney is leading McCain in MN 36%-28%. This looks like it is going to hold. Romney is winning smaller states, and this could keep him viable in the campaign. But, you basically have to add Huckabee's delegates to McCain's, and that gives McCain a huge advantage.
11:02pm MO is close. McCain just took a 1K vote lead (less than 1%). 78% reporting. Gonna have to watch that one still.
11:05pm Some encouraging news for Romney: He breaks out on top in CO with 5% reporting. And he's up to 30% in GA. He's winning MT too. But that's not going to help much on the delegate count.
11:09pm MT for Romney - with 511 votes. WhooHoo!
11:13pm CO for Obama. He's keeping pace. But he'll need a big state. The proportional split of delegates on the Dem side will keep him close.
11:14pm First report from CA. 1% reporting and Romney has 46%. It would be great if that would hold, but it'll drop.
11:16pm ID for Obama. Well, he's not an Eastern Liberal. So I'm not surprised he's hitting it big out West. It'll be interesting to see how he plays in CA.
11:22pm McCain and Huckabee are neck and neck in MO. Romney is 19K votes back. He lost this one. But is it proportional? I don't have a good resource for that one.
11:25pm With 2% in now, McCain doubles up Romney. I hope that shifts soon. On the other hand, Romney looks solid in CO and MN.
I had a thought earlier today: if Obama wins the Democrat nomination, you should get used to saying "President Obama". I really don't think either GOP candidate could keep him from a date with history (infamy?).
7:24pm I'm getting up to speed on the WV GOP shenanigans. And that's exactly what they were, shenanigans. It's obviously a double-team job, McCain and Huck vs. Mitt. That's politics, I guess, but it doesn't do much for Huck's "nice guy" image. It's now official: a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain. Look for a McCain/Huckabee ticket. Look for a 3rd party to form.
7:28pm Huckabee has broken out on top in the GA race. But he's only 1% over Romney with 1% reporting. Let's see if the McCain/Huckabee manipulation continues here.
7:30pm With 1% reporting, Fox has declared GA for Obama. It's a smackdown 64%/34%. It'll get closer, but Obama opens with the momentum.
7:40pm Why is Huck breaking out with 33% in GA, while McCain is stuck at 1%? Is there more collusion going on here? This doesn't make much sense. Here are the RCP polls for GA. McCain has about 32%. These numbers are going to change.
7:49pm Whoa, with less than 1% in, Fox calls AL for Huck? What the? Is he going to take all of the Southern states? If he can deliver those, he will be the VP.
7:50pm I'm not sure what's wrong with the Fox ticker, but the percentages don't line up with the vote counts. Obama gets AL with 1 vote on the board.
8:00pm Out of 5 states that Fox has called: McCain wins 3 (IL, CT, NJ), Huck wins 1 (AL), McCain wins MA. I don't think any of those are a surprise. But Huck is leading in GA too. Aargh.
8:03pm Hillary takes TN for the Dems. That surprises me. I'm not sure why, but it does.
8:10pm McCain and Huckabee are splitting GA and TN. Romney is being frozen out. I think Romney is going down the tubes, even if he surprises anyone in CA or MO.
8:13pm The Barone take on GA: McCain wins near military bases, Huckabee wins rural areas, Romney is winning in the burbs. These numbers could change.
8:15pm Karl Rove on Fox News. McCain's winner take all strategy is working. Romney gets an "incomplete". Huckabee gets kudos for his Bible Belt strategy.
8:23pm Fox reviews some early reporting, and Romney appears in 3rd place again and again. This doesn't look good. It might have been his strategy, but it sure doesn't build confidence.
8:30pm AK goes for Hillary and Huck. No surprise.
8:33pm Romney is gaining in GA. He's only behind by 6K votes. It'll be worth watching.
8:35pm DE for McCain. Boy, all these calls for McCain are discouraging.
8:38pm Karl Rove says Huckabee won't solve McCain's image problems with conservatives. He's right. But he doesn't pick anyone that would help. Chris Wallace mentions someone from SC. But I didn't catch the name.
8:52pm Fox calls MA for Hillary. So it starts to look like she will win the big states she expected. This is a big stick in the eye for Teddy.
8:54pm Laura Ingraham says she will back the GOP candidate, no matter who. But, she says she is worried about Conservatism. Amen to that. McCain will have to make a hell of a speech at CPAC to win over conservatives.
9:00pm Bunch of polls close, and Fox calls NY for Hillary. Arizona is too close for the GOP. That's a good sign for Romney.
9:04pm Hi, I'm in.....Delaware. And I went for Barack Obama.
9:10pm NJ goes for Hillary. Once again, her big state strategy is continuing. This will lessen the Obama surge today.
9:15pm Mary Katherine Ham is in the background on Fox (heavy sigh). If I was younger (and more talented) I might have a shot.
9:18pm NY for McCain. Not a shocker. But unfortunate.
9:25pm Watching the Montana results is funny. With 26% of precincts reporting, there are about 100 votes in. Now that's turnout!
9:28pm AL for Obama. He's doing well in the Southern states.
Pause for snack break
10:04pm So I come back and OK has gone for McCain. TN is lost to Romney (Huck's in the lead). And Huck is in the lead in GA. Romney needs an upset somewhere (AZ?).
10:08pm Huck is on Fox and....well he sounds so self-righteous that I can't listen. He has a reason to be happy, but damn he reminds me of Billy Jeff.
10:10pm I think after tonight, we may be able to clearly identify the factions in the Republican party: 1. The Northeastern Liberals. 2. Bible Belt Evangelicals, and 3. Western Conservatives.
10:27pm With 2% reporting, Romney takes Utah. There's a shocker.
10:29pm Huckabee still leades in GA. I think he'll take that one too with 78% reporting.
10:30pm Romney takes ND. One for the Western Conservatives. ND for Obama too.
10:33pm AZ breaks big for McCain. 51% with about 20% reporting. What's up with the exit polls that showed a 4% difference with Romney? Don't believe exit polls. Fox calls it for McCain. That really leaves CA, MO, and CO for Romney to make a splash.
10:35pm Good news for Mitt in MN. With 18% in, he leads by about 5%. I hope it keeps going that way. He needs to add a few more states to the tally.
10:37pm TN has gone for Huckabee. Oh, Lord. Will it ever end? I may develop a nervous twitch at this rate.
10:39pm Good speech by Mitt Romney. I like the fire and the emotion. He says he's going to carry on. I hope he finds a way to counter the McHucksters.
10:41pm GA for Huckabee. Argh. Is he the Perot of the primary? It looks like he's going to take MO too. Romney needs a big showing in CA and needs to steal a state. Any state. CO?
10:50pm Not going to listen to Hillary. Too. Painful. Grates. Ears. Seriously, how can anyone think of sending this family back to White House?
10:56pm With 28% in, Romney is leading McCain in MN 36%-28%. This looks like it is going to hold. Romney is winning smaller states, and this could keep him viable in the campaign. But, you basically have to add Huckabee's delegates to McCain's, and that gives McCain a huge advantage.
11:02pm MO is close. McCain just took a 1K vote lead (less than 1%). 78% reporting. Gonna have to watch that one still.
11:05pm Some encouraging news for Romney: He breaks out on top in CO with 5% reporting. And he's up to 30% in GA. He's winning MT too. But that's not going to help much on the delegate count.
11:09pm MT for Romney - with 511 votes. WhooHoo!
11:13pm CO for Obama. He's keeping pace. But he'll need a big state. The proportional split of delegates on the Dem side will keep him close.
11:14pm First report from CA. 1% reporting and Romney has 46%. It would be great if that would hold, but it'll drop.
11:16pm ID for Obama. Well, he's not an Eastern Liberal. So I'm not surprised he's hitting it big out West. It'll be interesting to see how he plays in CA.
11:22pm McCain and Huckabee are neck and neck in MO. Romney is 19K votes back. He lost this one. But is it proportional? I don't have a good resource for that one.
11:25pm With 2% in now, McCain doubles up Romney. I hope that shifts soon. On the other hand, Romney looks solid in CO and MN.
Labels: Barack Obama, Election 2008, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney
Saturday, February 02, 2008
FredHeads for Mitt
I just added the link to Mitt Romney's web page. I know I'm not alone as a Fred Thompson supporter that is switching to Romney. He's the only GOP candidate left with some conservative appeal. The only thing John McCain has going for him is his war stance. Based on his actions since losing the 2000 election, I just don't know if I can trust him with the conservative mantle. I am rapidly discovering what people mean when they say "I'm a conservative, not a Republican". I really wouldn't mind if there was a 3rd party forming here. We could join with the GOP against the Dems.
Waaaaaaay back in November 2006 (can you believe the campaign has been going on that long?) I noted that Mitt was the best of the bunch. That was before Fred got in the race. Well, I've learned more about Mitt since then, and Fred is gone. So, I'm with Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and former Sen. Rick Santorum. I'll go with Mitt.
And if you think there's not a clear difference between McCain and Romney. Take a look at this.
Waaaaaaay back in November 2006 (can you believe the campaign has been going on that long?) I noted that Mitt was the best of the bunch. That was before Fred got in the race. Well, I've learned more about Mitt since then, and Fred is gone. So, I'm with Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and former Sen. Rick Santorum. I'll go with Mitt.
And if you think there's not a clear difference between McCain and Romney. Take a look at this.
Labels: Election 2008, Fred08, John McCain, Laura Ingraham, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Sean Hannity
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Watching the Florida Numbers Roll In
9:11pm - Fox calls it for McCain. Can I go throw up now?
9:10pm - Gap is up to 52K. 'Nuff said.
9:08pm - I know why Mel Martinez and Charlie Crist endorsed McCain. But Rudy? (via Michelle Malkin) It follows, I guess. McCain is now officially the establishment GOP candidate. And the establishment doesn't speak for me. Good Lord, I guess I'll register as an Independent. Do these people not understand the McCain would endorse the Shamnesty bill?
8:52pm - OK, with 46% reporting, McCain is up by 40K votes. I hate to say it, but it's over. Romney may barely hold on to his popular-vote lead, but with 57 delegates, McCain will leap to the front in the delegate count. Fox Election Tomato, Megan ?, went through the exit polling, and it looks like Romney is losing some key demographics including Men and Seniors. Huckabee's on right now, playing for the VP slot.
8:40pm - The gap is up to 26K. If it goes over 30K, I think that will be an irreversable trend. I feel sorry for the news networks, they won't be able to call this until sometime tomorrow morning.
8:35pm - 37% in and the gap keeps growing, 22K now. Hillary is having a "victory" party in Florida. If those delegates get seated, I believe there will be a giant, rending "crack" in the Democrat party. Almost as big as if McCain gets the nomination.
8:29pm - 35% in and the gap has widened to 20K. I hope this isn't the start of a trend.
8:27pm - A Romney supporter (Kevin Madden) on Fox said that McCain has been an "unreliable Republican". That sums it up for me.
8:25pm - Fox News announced their exit polling: 34% for McCain, 31% for Romney. 1,500+ in the poll that included absentee/early voters. Wint 33% in, Romney is back behind by 18K votes (2%). Like I said, I'm wondering about the pan-handle.
8:12pm - With 29% in - Romney has closed the gap. He's only 8K behind on vote count (1%). I can dare to dream that Romney will pull it out at this point.
8:09pm - I feel like I'm watching the end of the Republican party. Romney is down by 22K in votes or by 3%. It's close, and it'll go down to the end. But, he'll lose the delegate lead. Another "silver" won't do. And it won't give him any momentum going into Super Tuesday. Can you tell I'm a FoF that has shifted to Romney? Giuliani would be my third choice. Damn, after that I'd go super-wacko down to Paul before I'd go for McCain or Huckabee.
8:05pm - Just got home and McCain is up 34% to 31%. He's starting to close the vote number gap, but I'm waiting for the panhandle numbers roll in. That's the area that turned the tide for President Bush in 2000. That's where the conservative Republicans are. I believe they will go for Romney.
9:10pm - Gap is up to 52K. 'Nuff said.
9:08pm - I know why Mel Martinez and Charlie Crist endorsed McCain. But Rudy? (via Michelle Malkin) It follows, I guess. McCain is now officially the establishment GOP candidate. And the establishment doesn't speak for me. Good Lord, I guess I'll register as an Independent. Do these people not understand the McCain would endorse the Shamnesty bill?
8:52pm - OK, with 46% reporting, McCain is up by 40K votes. I hate to say it, but it's over. Romney may barely hold on to his popular-vote lead, but with 57 delegates, McCain will leap to the front in the delegate count. Fox Election Tomato, Megan ?, went through the exit polling, and it looks like Romney is losing some key demographics including Men and Seniors. Huckabee's on right now, playing for the VP slot.
8:40pm - The gap is up to 26K. If it goes over 30K, I think that will be an irreversable trend. I feel sorry for the news networks, they won't be able to call this until sometime tomorrow morning.
8:35pm - 37% in and the gap keeps growing, 22K now. Hillary is having a "victory" party in Florida. If those delegates get seated, I believe there will be a giant, rending "crack" in the Democrat party. Almost as big as if McCain gets the nomination.
8:29pm - 35% in and the gap has widened to 20K. I hope this isn't the start of a trend.
8:27pm - A Romney supporter (Kevin Madden) on Fox said that McCain has been an "unreliable Republican". That sums it up for me.
8:25pm - Fox News announced their exit polling: 34% for McCain, 31% for Romney. 1,500+ in the poll that included absentee/early voters. Wint 33% in, Romney is back behind by 18K votes (2%). Like I said, I'm wondering about the pan-handle.
8:12pm - With 29% in - Romney has closed the gap. He's only 8K behind on vote count (1%). I can dare to dream that Romney will pull it out at this point.
8:09pm - I feel like I'm watching the end of the Republican party. Romney is down by 22K in votes or by 3%. It's close, and it'll go down to the end. But, he'll lose the delegate lead. Another "silver" won't do. And it won't give him any momentum going into Super Tuesday. Can you tell I'm a FoF that has shifted to Romney? Giuliani would be my third choice. Damn, after that I'd go super-wacko down to Paul before I'd go for McCain or Huckabee.
8:05pm - Just got home and McCain is up 34% to 31%. He's starting to close the vote number gap, but I'm waiting for the panhandle numbers roll in. That's the area that turned the tide for President Bush in 2000. That's where the conservative Republicans are. I believe they will go for Romney.
Labels: Election 2008, John McCain, Mel Martinex, Michelle Malkin, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
