Tuesday, February 05, 2008


Super Tuesday

OK, so it's 7:14pm and I just got home. I guess Huckabee has already taken 18 delegates from West Virginia, and Obama got 3 from Samoa. A bunch of polls close at 8pm. I'm watching Fox. At this point, I guess the best I can hope for is a no decision. That is, no clear GOP candidate so Mitt Romney still has a chance in later races. I'll post updates as the results flow in.

I had a thought earlier today: if Obama wins the Democrat nomination, you should get used to saying "President Obama". I really don't think either GOP candidate could keep him from a date with history (infamy?).

7:24pm I'm getting up to speed on the WV GOP shenanigans. And that's exactly what they were, shenanigans. It's obviously a double-team job, McCain and Huck vs. Mitt. That's politics, I guess, but it doesn't do much for Huck's "nice guy" image. It's now official: a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain. Look for a McCain/Huckabee ticket. Look for a 3rd party to form.

7:28pm Huckabee has broken out on top in the GA race. But he's only 1% over Romney with 1% reporting. Let's see if the McCain/Huckabee manipulation continues here.

7:30pm With 1% reporting, Fox has declared GA for Obama. It's a smackdown 64%/34%. It'll get closer, but Obama opens with the momentum.

7:40pm Why is Huck breaking out with 33% in GA, while McCain is stuck at 1%? Is there more collusion going on here? This doesn't make much sense. Here are the RCP polls for GA. McCain has about 32%. These numbers are going to change.

7:49pm Whoa, with less than 1% in, Fox calls AL for Huck? What the? Is he going to take all of the Southern states? If he can deliver those, he will be the VP.

7:50pm I'm not sure what's wrong with the Fox ticker, but the percentages don't line up with the vote counts. Obama gets AL with 1 vote on the board.

8:00pm Out of 5 states that Fox has called: McCain wins 3 (IL, CT, NJ), Huck wins 1 (AL), McCain wins MA. I don't think any of those are a surprise. But Huck is leading in GA too. Aargh.

8:03pm Hillary takes TN for the Dems. That surprises me. I'm not sure why, but it does.

8:10pm McCain and Huckabee are splitting GA and TN. Romney is being frozen out. I think Romney is going down the tubes, even if he surprises anyone in CA or MO.

8:13pm The Barone take on GA: McCain wins near military bases, Huckabee wins rural areas, Romney is winning in the burbs. These numbers could change.

8:15pm Karl Rove on Fox News. McCain's winner take all strategy is working. Romney gets an "incomplete". Huckabee gets kudos for his Bible Belt strategy.

8:23pm Fox reviews some early reporting, and Romney appears in 3rd place again and again. This doesn't look good. It might have been his strategy, but it sure doesn't build confidence.

8:30pm AK goes for Hillary and Huck. No surprise.

8:33pm Romney is gaining in GA. He's only behind by 6K votes. It'll be worth watching.

8:35pm DE for McCain. Boy, all these calls for McCain are discouraging.

8:38pm Karl Rove says Huckabee won't solve McCain's image problems with conservatives. He's right. But he doesn't pick anyone that would help. Chris Wallace mentions someone from SC. But I didn't catch the name.

8:52pm Fox calls MA for Hillary. So it starts to look like she will win the big states she expected. This is a big stick in the eye for Teddy.

8:54pm Laura Ingraham says she will back the GOP candidate, no matter who. But, she says she is worried about Conservatism. Amen to that. McCain will have to make a hell of a speech at CPAC to win over conservatives.

9:00pm Bunch of polls close, and Fox calls NY for Hillary. Arizona is too close for the GOP. That's a good sign for Romney.

9:04pm Hi, I'm in.....Delaware. And I went for Barack Obama.

9:10pm NJ goes for Hillary. Once again, her big state strategy is continuing. This will lessen the Obama surge today.

9:15pm Mary Katherine Ham is in the background on Fox (heavy sigh). If I was younger (and more talented) I might have a shot.

9:18pm NY for McCain. Not a shocker. But unfortunate.

9:25pm Watching the Montana results is funny. With 26% of precincts reporting, there are about 100 votes in. Now that's turnout!

9:28pm AL for Obama. He's doing well in the Southern states.

Pause for snack break

10:04pm So I come back and OK has gone for McCain. TN is lost to Romney (Huck's in the lead). And Huck is in the lead in GA. Romney needs an upset somewhere (AZ?).

10:08pm Huck is on Fox and....well he sounds so self-righteous that I can't listen. He has a reason to be happy, but damn he reminds me of Billy Jeff.

10:10pm I think after tonight, we may be able to clearly identify the factions in the Republican party: 1. The Northeastern Liberals. 2. Bible Belt Evangelicals, and 3. Western Conservatives.

10:27pm With 2% reporting, Romney takes Utah. There's a shocker.

10:29pm Huckabee still leades in GA. I think he'll take that one too with 78% reporting.

10:30pm Romney takes ND. One for the Western Conservatives. ND for Obama too.

10:33pm AZ breaks big for McCain. 51% with about 20% reporting. What's up with the exit polls that showed a 4% difference with Romney? Don't believe exit polls. Fox calls it for McCain. That really leaves CA, MO, and CO for Romney to make a splash.

10:35pm Good news for Mitt in MN. With 18% in, he leads by about 5%. I hope it keeps going that way. He needs to add a few more states to the tally.

10:37pm TN has gone for Huckabee. Oh, Lord. Will it ever end? I may develop a nervous twitch at this rate.

10:39pm Good speech by Mitt Romney. I like the fire and the emotion. He says he's going to carry on. I hope he finds a way to counter the McHucksters.

10:41pm GA for Huckabee. Argh. Is he the Perot of the primary? It looks like he's going to take MO too. Romney needs a big showing in CA and needs to steal a state. Any state. CO?

10:50pm Not going to listen to Hillary. Too. Painful. Grates. Ears. Seriously, how can anyone think of sending this family back to White House?

10:56pm With 28% in, Romney is leading McCain in MN 36%-28%. This looks like it is going to hold. Romney is winning smaller states, and this could keep him viable in the campaign. But, you basically have to add Huckabee's delegates to McCain's, and that gives McCain a huge advantage.

11:02pm MO is close. McCain just took a 1K vote lead (less than 1%). 78% reporting. Gonna have to watch that one still.

11:05pm Some encouraging news for Romney: He breaks out on top in CO with 5% reporting. And he's up to 30% in GA. He's winning MT too. But that's not going to help much on the delegate count.

11:09pm MT for Romney - with 511 votes. WhooHoo!

11:13pm CO for Obama. He's keeping pace. But he'll need a big state. The proportional split of delegates on the Dem side will keep him close.

11:14pm First report from CA. 1% reporting and Romney has 46%. It would be great if that would hold, but it'll drop.

11:16pm ID for Obama. Well, he's not an Eastern Liberal. So I'm not surprised he's hitting it big out West. It'll be interesting to see how he plays in CA.

11:22pm McCain and Huckabee are neck and neck in MO. Romney is 19K votes back. He lost this one. But is it proportional? I don't have a good resource for that one.

11:25pm With 2% in now, McCain doubles up Romney. I hope that shifts soon. On the other hand, Romney looks solid in CO and MN.

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