Thursday, January 31, 2008


Why McCain Makes Me Want to Throw Up

from Doug Ross via Gateway Pundit

This says it all

Tuesday, January 29, 2008


Watching the Florida Numbers Roll In

9:11pm - Fox calls it for McCain. Can I go throw up now?

9:10pm - Gap is up to 52K. 'Nuff said.

9:08pm - I know why Mel Martinez and Charlie Crist endorsed McCain. But Rudy? (via Michelle Malkin) It follows, I guess. McCain is now officially the establishment GOP candidate. And the establishment doesn't speak for me. Good Lord, I guess I'll register as an Independent. Do these people not understand the McCain would endorse the Shamnesty bill?

8:52pm - OK, with 46% reporting, McCain is up by 40K votes. I hate to say it, but it's over. Romney may barely hold on to his popular-vote lead, but with 57 delegates, McCain will leap to the front in the delegate count. Fox Election Tomato, Megan ?, went through the exit polling, and it looks like Romney is losing some key demographics including Men and Seniors. Huckabee's on right now, playing for the VP slot.

8:40pm - The gap is up to 26K. If it goes over 30K, I think that will be an irreversable trend. I feel sorry for the news networks, they won't be able to call this until sometime tomorrow morning.

8:35pm - 37% in and the gap keeps growing, 22K now. Hillary is having a "victory" party in Florida. If those delegates get seated, I believe there will be a giant, rending "crack" in the Democrat party. Almost as big as if McCain gets the nomination.

8:29pm - 35% in and the gap has widened to 20K. I hope this isn't the start of a trend.

8:27pm - A Romney supporter (Kevin Madden) on Fox said that McCain has been an "unreliable Republican". That sums it up for me.

8:25pm - Fox News announced their exit polling: 34% for McCain, 31% for Romney. 1,500+ in the poll that included absentee/early voters. Wint 33% in, Romney is back behind by 18K votes (2%). Like I said, I'm wondering about the pan-handle.

8:12pm - With 29% in - Romney has closed the gap. He's only 8K behind on vote count (1%). I can dare to dream that Romney will pull it out at this point.

8:09pm - I feel like I'm watching the end of the Republican party. Romney is down by 22K in votes or by 3%. It's close, and it'll go down to the end. But, he'll lose the delegate lead. Another "silver" won't do. And it won't give him any momentum going into Super Tuesday. Can you tell I'm a FoF that has shifted to Romney? Giuliani would be my third choice. Damn, after that I'd go super-wacko down to Paul before I'd go for McCain or Huckabee.

8:05pm - Just got home and McCain is up 34% to 31%. He's starting to close the vote number gap, but I'm waiting for the panhandle numbers roll in. That's the area that turned the tide for President Bush in 2000. That's where the conservative Republicans are. I believe they will go for Romney.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008


Who's to Blame for the Baby Boomlet?

Instapundit blames Britney for maintaining the 2.1 children per woman birth rate. I blame Bush. Here's the e-mail I sent to Glenn Reynolds:

I'm in the Army and my evidence is entirely anecdotal, but there are several families on my block that have children under 3 (which would make them Iraq War babies). Most of these families also have a soldier that was deployed within the last few years. I live in a military neighborhood of duplexes. My right hand neighbor has 2 kids (teens), my across the street neighbor has 3 kids (2 under 3), my immediate left hand neighbor has 4 children (1 is 3), and the far right neighbor has 3 kids (1 is 1 yr old). The military community has a high birth rate anyway (my ex even had a kid without me while I was deployed) because there's no out-of-pocket expense for the birth (at a military hospital). Even so, if it weren't for all of the deployments, we wouldn't be having nearly as many children as a result of the reunions.

Sure, illegal immigration may account for a bunch of it, but I blame Bush and the Iraq War for giving us a shot at having a sustainable population.


Dem Debate Thread

9:33pm - The Muslim question. Do we have to go on about this? This is a waste of time and I'm going to bed. I have to work in the morning. There's a lot a talk about what they would do, but no specifics. The first break is here, and I'm out.

9:30pm - A Democrat talking about accountability? How about the thousands of airdropped earmarks, led by the Democratic Congress? Hey Obama, bringing people with different viewpoints together isn't leadership, that's indecision.

9:27pm - If I was drinking tonight, I'd have to take a shot every time Edwards said "fight". I think I'd be halfway through the bottle by now. So far Williams and Russert get a low C- for moderating. This is boring. "Strengths and Weaknesses". Give me a break.

9:23pm - Clinton accuses Bush of "begging" the Saudis to lower the price of oil. Well, what would you do? Use your charming smile and bat your eyelashes? What leverage do you have that the President doesn't? It was a winding answer, but had no substantive points. Says she we have to imagine each of them as Commander in Chief - no thank you. I'd like to be able to sleep tonight.

9:22pm - Edwards says the tax code gives companies tax breaks to companies moving jobs overseas. You're going to have to explain that to me. If another country charges less taxes than we do, and thereby encourages companies to move there (like Puerto Rico), that's not something you can control, except by cutting your own tax rate.
(Heckler alert - but he's got a point - calls Williams and Russert on the race-based questions)

9:21pm - I want to mention this before I forget it...Unless my hearing was off, John Edwards listed his standard list of campaign points including universal health care, and called it giving "opportunity" to people. Universal health care isn't an opportunity - it's mandatory. There's no choice involved, where people can take advantage of the "opportunity" or not. It's command directed.

9:18pm - Is it just me, or does Hillary look like a wax figure when she forces herself to smile at Obama?

9:16pm - And then the Today tomato promptly injects more race and gender in the campaign. "What is a white male candidate to do?" I'll actually blame MSNBC for this. Now Williams talks about who won the "women's vote" where. Can we get to a real issue here? They've wasted 20 min on this tripe.

9:14pm - Clinton invokes the first anecdotal evidence of the economic downturn: a construction worker and a casino worker who had been laid off. But how would you solve that?

9:12pm - They've spent 10 minutes talking about how much they want the campaign to be about issues and not race. I'm not sure who's a fault here, but Williams and Russert won't let the MLK flap go. Obama did a good political turn in answering the question he wanted to answer as opposed to answering the question that was asked.

9:03pm - I turn on MSNBC (and immediately want to wash my hands) and see that there's a tomato from the Today show that will be handling e-mail questions. Didn't these people learn form the youTube debate? Isn't asking questions what you "journalists" get paid for?


Watching the Michigan Numbers Roll In

9:00pm - Fox calls both races. Clinton and Romney. Fred is about 2300 votes behind Paul. That's a disappointment. I wonder if Clinton is even going to say anything about this race tomorrow? I wonder how media outlets will spin the 1/3 of Dems who voted for "Uncommitted"? Should be interesting.

8:57pm - Thought - If Romney wins, does that mean that Kos ends his streak of backing losers? Brit Hume says that FoxNews is going to call both races at the top of the hour. Clinton is down to 61% and Romney is holding at 37%. I wonder for whom they will call the races?

8:55pm - Drama! With 8% in, FoxNews has called the race for Clinton! It's a shocker! She only has 62% of the vote. Uncommitted could come back. Of course, as I write this, 9% is now in and they removed the check mark from Clinton's name. Controversy!

8:49pm - While I'm not enjoying watching Fred fall further and further behind Paul, I am enjoying watching the Uncommitted vote on the Dem side climb bit by bit. It's up to 33% now. If you add the 4% for Kucinich and 1% for Gravel, 38% of Dems braved the weather and apathy to say "no" to Hillary. That's a statement.

8:44pm - With 4% in, it's a little tighter. 36% for Romney, 32% for McCain. Thompson has fallen 600+ votes behind Paul. It'll end up close, but it looks like Paul will end up 4th (and Rudy will be 6th). On the Democrat side, 1 out of 3 voters turned out to say "no" to Hillary. That's how I see it anyway. Based on the light turnout, and the weather, I don't think that bodes well for her campaign.

8:33 pm - With 1% in, Romney leads 38% to 31% for McCain. I'm really watching Thompson and Paul. I know Fred didn't really campaign in Michigan, but I'd still like to see him finish ahead of the chief Ronulan. I really liked to watch the Fox News guys hold off on reporting any numbers until the polls closed at 8pm. I guess we've finally learned from the 2000 election. They reported some exit polling, but heavily caveated the results.

Thursday, January 10, 2008


Republican Debate in South Carolina

Campaign Carl Cameron in the house! This should be a good one. Fred Thompson's last stand.

9:03 Chris Wallace - question about a possible recession. Do you believe it, and why should you be trusted to deal with it? Romney first: seems like this was right in his wheelhouse. He worked in tax cuts and energy independence (although he may have sounded green on this). Because of Romney's Michigan strategy, he worked that in as well and McCain got to rebut about re-training for the jobs that would be lost. McCain sounded surprised when he got an opportunity to answer.

9:08 How does out-of-control spending relate to interest rates? I'm not sure McCain got that right. Spending has been out of control for years and interest rates are still near all-time lows. Have to admit he sounds good talking about anti-pork and using the veto pen. Still, it seems like a pipe dream with a Democratic congress.

9:09 Recession question goes to Huckabee. Dependence on foreign oil and sub-prime mortgages. Personally, I'm with Michelle Malkin: Suck. It. Up. Huckster was all over the map.

9:12 Question to Giuliani - how does cutting taxes increase revenue? He's not the best at explaining it. What is this, economics class? First Reagan reference.

9:13 Tax question to McCain. McCain actually puts the deficit blame from the 80s where it belongs: the Democratic congress that wouldn't cut spending.

9:15 Ron Paul - "you have to understand the Austrian theory of...." Good Lord....spending is "artificial stimulus"?

9:17 Fred speaks, and takes credit for Rudy's tax plan. Also mentions making tax cuts permanent. So far, McCain, Rudy, and Romney sound the most comfortable in this debate.

9:19 Campaign Carl asks about deconstruction of the Reagan Coalition. Huckabee sums up the conservative movement. But he's for increased spending and increasing taxes. I'm not sure I've heard a more substanceless answer - it kind of sounded like John Edwards.

In fairness, I think Carl could have asked a better question.

McCain covered it well and even threw in the Bridge to Nowhere.

9:22 Romney takes a rough question and puts in a reference to the shining city on the hill. It was actually a fairly inspiring answer.

9:25 Fred goes on the attack and calls Huckabee on his lack of conservative credentials. Fred gets the first ovation (against the rules).

9:27 Huck responds and says he cut taxes 94 times and cut the budget 11%. I'd like to check on those.

9:29 Carl calls Ron Paul about the Troofers. He brushes it off as something he can't control.

9:31 Ron Paul doesn't understand that we are at war. "We're in all these countries." He's got some hard core supporters in the crowd. Deficit is out of control? It's been coming down every quarter for the past 2 years or so (I'll have to check the stats on this). If spending stayed flat (or even was tied to inflation) we'd break even on an annual basis by 2010.

First break: I guess you could call it the McCain 1/2 hour. I have to tell you Huckabee's comment about taking flak when you're over the target didn't impress me. Fred got to speak twice, and ignited the first controversy by going after Huckabee.

9:35 Question about the appropriate response to the incursion by the Iranian gunboats. Mike Huckabee mentions sending our enemies to the "gates of Hell".

9:37 Fred answers the question and gets in a line about "the virgins they were waiting to meet".

9:39 Rudy ties the incident back to the NIE and how we should be focused on not allowing Iran to become a nuclear power. Good move putting it in the big picture.

9:39 McCain praises the commanders and mentions that we should trust their judgement (as did Huck, Fred, and Rudy). Decisions are made by commanders on the ground. That's why they get the big bucks.

9:41 First Paul decries the Troofers....then compares the speed boat incident to the Gulf of Tonkin. I love the look on McCain's face as he answered this. If he could, I bet he'd choke the shit out of Paul. Any of these guys remember that it was a "speedboat" that blew up the USS Cole.

9:45 Wendell Goller (spelling?) asks McCain about Iraq. National Security is his strength. He clearly outlined the differences between Republicans and Democrats with respect to the war. But I still can't forgive him for McCain/Feingold, the Gang of 14, Amnesty, need I go on?

9:49 Rudy and McCain sound very presidential. I'd trust either one on national security. Paul shows his isolationist roots. Just close your ears and eyes and it will all go away. Buffoon. Please, Fox, get him off the stage. I can't believe the idiot has that much support in the audience.

9:53 Thompson is asked about Pakistan. He's definitely better playing to an audience (he holds for applause). Misspoke about the Western mountains of "Afghanistan", but his points were spot on.

9:55 Who is General Kiani (sp?) that Romney is mentioning? I guess I need to read up on my Pakistani current events. Romney is showing is naivite on Islam. The change won't come from the outside, it has to come from inside the religion. And it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

9:57 Boy there's a lot of agreeing going on on the stage tonight. Huck agrees with Mitt and Fred. Fred agrees with Rudy. But I think that everyone agrees that Ron Paul is a boob.

2nd break. There wasn't a clear winner this half hour, but Ron Paul was the clear loser in my mind. He criticizes us for arming Israels enemies - valid point, but he said "giving weapons to Arabs", it's not just Arabs that are the enemies of Israel. I'd be that most of our Arab aid goes to Saudi and Egypt - not exactly two states calling for the dissolution of Israel. The country that's calling for it the loudest: Iran - not Arab.

10:04 Chris Wallace - asks about the "change" theme. Defend your position that the American people want a Washington outsider. Romney sounds inspiring and can run on his record of success.

10:07 Same question to McCain. Goes back to "changing" course in Iraq. That's not the question John. Tell me how you're going to stop entitlement expansion, earmarks, cut off benefits to illegals so they'll be encouraged to go home. Overall a pretty good answer (brought in Abramoff and other stuff), but I can't see him as an agent of change.

10:09 Same question to Huckabee. Talks about education, road systems, and says again that he cut taxes. Can somebody point this out to me? I don't know I've seen a reference to him cutting taxes.

10:13 Some back and forth between Thompson and Huckabee. I think Thompson came out on top, but I'm a little biased. What Huckabee is saying doesn't square with the things I've read about him. I guess I need to do some more research. He still just seems to slick.

10:18 Huckabee questions why it's always OK to ask him the religious question. Huckabee offers a decent defense of religious beliefs and marriage.

10:20 Paul just revealed that he is not intellectually capable of handling foreign policy.

3rd break. Once again, no clear winner. Overall, I'd say McCain is on a roll. But, I don't think we're going to see any major moves in SC because of this debate. McCain and Huckabee will probably pull away from the pack.

I'd trust anybody (except Paul) on the stage with foreign policy. They're all talking a good game about smaller government, lowering taxes, etc...records matter on that one. I'm not sure who's misrepresenting his record.

10:25 Why do I not trust McCain when he talks about securing the borders?

10:27 Romney outlines differences between candidates on immigration. He decries the Z visas.

10:29 Thompson also includes sanctuary cities.

10:30 Ron Paul blames part of the border problem on Iraq. Moron.

10:32 Giuliani gets to confront his policy of not asking informants about immigration status. Tells a story about a balance between enforcement and cooperation. Not a bad answer, but not exactly inspiring if you want to close the border.

Still, I think the whole debate was a wash. I don't think anyone in particular stood out. Thompson sounded more like a VP attack dog than a President. Paul is a lightweight and needs to go. The rest all sounded comfortable and presidential.

Fred seems to have won over the focus group on Fox. I didn't think he made that big of an impression. A bunch of them like Fred's attack on Huckabee. And they voted Ron Paul - The Biggest Loser. I like these guys.

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